Novel Trial Design: CHIEF-HF.

BACKGROUND: The expense of clinical trials mandates new strategies to efficiently generate evidence and test novel therapies. In this context, we designed a decentralized, patient-centered randomized clinical trial leveraging mobile technologies, rather than in-person site visits, to test the efficacy of 12 weeks of canagliflozin for the treatment of heart failure, regardless of ejection fraction or diabetes status, on the reduction of heart failure symptoms. METHODS: One thousand nine hundred patients will be enrolled with a medical record-confirmed diagnosis of heart failure, stratified by reduced (≤40%) or preserved (>40%) ejection fraction and randomized 1:1 to 100 mg daily of canagliflozin or matching placebo. The primary outcome will be the 12-week change in the total symptom score of the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire. Secondary outcomes will be daily step count and other scales of the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire. RESULTS: The trial is currently enrolling, even in the era of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: CHIEF-HF (Canagliflozin: Impact on Health Status, Quality of Life and Functional Status in Heart Failure) is deploying a novel model of conducting a decentralized, patient-centered, randomized clinical trial for a new indication for canagliflozin to improve the symptoms of patients with heart failure. It can model a new method for more cost-effectively testing the efficacy of treatments using mobile technologies with patient-reported outcomes as the primary clinical end point of the trial. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT04252287.

Methods for modelling excess mortality across England during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Excess mortality is an important measure of the scale of the coronavirus-2019 pandemic. It includes both deaths caused directly by the pandemic, and deaths caused by the unintended consequences of containment such as delays to accessing care or postponements of healthcare provision in the population. In 2020 and 2021, in England, multiple groups have produced measures of excess mortality during the pandemic. This paper describes the data and methods used in five different approaches to estimating excess mortality and compares their estimates.The fundamental principles of estimating excess mortality are described, as well as the key commonalities and differences between five approaches. Two of these are based on the date of registration: a quasi-Poisson model with offset and a 5-year average; and three are based on date of occurrence: a Poisson model without offset, the European monitoring of excess mortality model and a synthetic controls model. Comparisons between estimates of excess mortality are made for the period March 2020 through March 2021 and for the two waves of the pandemic that occur within that time-period.Model estimates are strikingly similar during the first wave of the pandemic though larger differences are observed during the second wave. Models that adjusted for reduced circulation of winter infection produced higher estimates of excess compared with those that did not. Models that do not adjust for reduced circulation of winter infection captured the effect of reduced winter illness as a result of mobility restrictions during the period. None of the estimates captured mortality displacement and therefore may underestimate excess at the current time, though the extent to which this has occurred is not yet identified. Models use different approaches to address variation in data availability and stakeholder requirements of the measure. Variation between estimates reflects differences in the date of interest, population denominators and parameters in the model relating to seasonality and trend.

Analysis of Myocarditis Among 252 Million mRNA-1273 Recipients Worldwide.

BACKGROUND: Growing evidence indicates a causal relationship between SARS-CoV-2 infection and myocarditis. Post-authorization safety data have also identified myocarditis as a rare safety event following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination, particularly among adolescent and young adult males after dose 2. We further evaluated the potential risk by querying the Moderna global safety database for myocarditis/myopericarditis reports among mRNA-1273 recipients worldwide. METHODS: Myocarditis/myopericarditis reports from December 18, 2020, to February 15, 2022, were reviewed and classified. The reported rate after any known mRNA-1273 dose was calculated according to age and sex, then compared to a population-based incidence rate to calculate observed-to-expected rate ratios (RR). RESULTS: During the study period, 3017 myocarditis/myopericarditis cases among 252 million mRNA-1273 recipients were reported to the Moderna global safety database. The overall reporting rate was 9.23 per 100,000 person-years, which was similar to the expected reference rate (9.0 cases per 100,000 person-years; RR [95% CI], 1.03 [0.97-1.08]). When stratified by sex and age, observed rates were highest for males aged <40 years, particularly those 18-24 years (53.76 per 100,000 person-years), which was higher than expected (RR [95% CI], 3.10 [2.68-3.58]). When considering only cases occurring within 7 days of a known dose, the observed rate was highest for males aged 18-24 years after dose 2 (4.23 per 100,000 doses administered). CONCLUSION: Myocarditis/myopericarditis rates were not higher than expected for the overall population of mRNA-1273 recipients but were higher than expected in males aged 18-24 years, with most cases occurring 7 days after dose 2.

Emerging heterologous mRNA-based booster strategies within the COVID-19 vaccine landscape.

Messenger RNA (mRNA)-based vaccine platforms used for the development of mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2 have provided a robust adaptable approach to offer protection against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). However, as variants of concern (VoCs), such as omicron and associated sub-variants, emerge, boosting strategies must also adapt to keep pace with the changing landscape. Heterologous vaccination regimens involving the administration of booster vaccines different than the primary vaccination series offer a practical, effective, and safe approach to continue to reduce the global burden of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). To understand the immunogenicity, effectiveness, and safety of heterologous mRNA-based vaccination strategies, relevant clinical and real-world observational studies were identified and summarized. Overall, heterologous boosting strategies with mRNA-based vaccines that are currently available and those in development will play an important global role in protecting individuals from COVID-19 caused by emerging VoCs.

The impact of COVID-19 on mortality after hip fracture : a population cohort study from England.

AIMS: Hip fracture commonly affects the frailest patients, of whom many are care-dependent, with a disproportionate risk of contracting COVID-19. We examined the impact of COVID-19 infection on hip fracture mortality in England. METHODS: We conducted a cohort study of patients with hip fracture recorded in the National Hip Fracture Database between 1 February 2019 and 31 October 2020 in England. Data were linked to Hospital Episode Statistics to quantify patient characteristics and comorbidities, Office for National Statistics mortality data, and Public Health England's SARS-CoV-2 testing results. Multivariable Cox regression examined determinants of 90-day mortality. Excess mortality attributable to COVID-19 was quantified using Quasi-Poisson models. RESULTS: Analysis of 102,900 hip fractures (42,630 occurring during the pandemic) revealed that among those with COVID-19 infection at presentation (n = 1,120) there was a doubling of 90-day mortality; hazard ratio (HR) 2.09 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.89 to 2.31), while the HR for infections arising between eight and 30 days after presentation (n = 1,644) the figure was greater at 2.51 (95% CI 2.31 to 2.73). Malnutrition (1.45 (95% CI 1.19 to 1.77)) and nonoperative treatment (2.94 (95% CI 2.18 to 3.95)) were the only modifiable risk factors for death in COVID-19-positive patients. Patients who had tested positive for COVID-19 more than two weeks prior to hip fracture initially had better survival compared to those who contracted COVID-19 around the time of their hip fracture; however, survival rapidly declined and by 365 days the combination of hip fracture and COVID-19 infection was associated with a 50% mortality rate. Between 1 January and 30 June 2020, 1,273 (99.7% CI 1,077 to 1,465) excess deaths occurred within 90 days of hip fracture, representing an excess mortality of 23% (99.7% CI 20% to 26%), with most deaths occurring within 30 days. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 infection more than doubles the rate of early hip fracture mortality. Those contracting infection between 8 and 30 days after initial presentation are at even higher mortality risk, signalling the potential for targeted interventions during this period to improve survival.Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(10):1156-1167.

Inequalities in excess premature mortality in England during the COVID-19 pandemic: a cross-sectional analysis of cumulative excess mortality by area deprivation and ethnicity.

OBJECTIVES: To examine magnitude of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on inequalities in premature mortality in England by deprivation and ethnicity. DESIGN: A statistical model to estimate increased mortality in population subgroups during the COVID-19 pandemic by comparing observed with expected mortality in each group based on trends over the previous 5 years. SETTING: Information on deaths registered in England since 2015 was used, including age, sex, area of residence and cause of death. Ethnicity was obtained from Hospital Episode Statistics records linked to death data. PARTICIPANTS: Population study of England, including all 569 824 deaths from all causes registered between 21 March 2020 and 26 February 2021. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Excess mortality in each subgroup over and above the number expected based on trends in mortality in that group over the previous 5 years. RESULTS: The gradient in excess mortality by area deprivation was greater in the under 75s (the most deprived areas had 1.25 times as many deaths as expected, least deprived 1.14) than in all ages (most deprived had 1.24 times as many deaths as expected, least deprived 1.20). Among the black and Asian groups, all area deprivation quintiles had significantly larger excesses than white groups in the most deprived quintiles and there were no clear gradients across quintiles. Among the white group, only those in the most deprived quintile had more excess deaths than deaths directly involving COVID-19. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic has widened inequalities in premature mortality by area deprivation. Among those under 75, the direct and indirect effects of the pandemic on deaths have disproportionately impacted ethnic minority groups irrespective of area deprivation, and the white group the most deprived areas. Statistics limited to deaths directly involving COVID-19 understate the pandemic's impact on inequalities by area deprivation and ethnic group at younger ages.

Factors indicating intention to vaccinate with a COVID-19 vaccine among older U.S. adults.

BACKGROUND: The success of vaccination efforts to curb the COVID-19 pandemic will require broad public uptake of immunization and highlights the importance of understanding factors associated with willingness to receive a vaccine. METHODS: U.S. adults aged 65 and older enrolled in the HeartlineTM clinical study were invited to complete a COVID-19 vaccine assessment through the HeartlineTM mobile application between November 6-20, 2020. Factors associated with willingness to receive a COVID-19 vaccine were evaluated using an ordered logistic regression as well as a Random Forest classification algorithm. RESULTS: Among 9,106 study participants, 81.3% (n = 7402) responded and had available demographic data. The majority (91.3%) reported a willingness to be vaccinated. Factors most strongly associated with vaccine willingness were beliefs about the safety and efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines and vaccines in general. Women and Black or African American respondents reported lower willingness to vaccinate. Among those less willing to get vaccinated, 66.2% said that they would talk with their health provider before making a decision. During the study, positive results from the first COVID-19 vaccine outcome study were released; vaccine willingness increased after this report. CONCLUSIONS: Even among older adults at high-risk for COVID-19 complications who are participating in a longitudinal clinical study, 1 in 11 reported lack of willingness to receive COVID-19 vaccine in November 2020. Variability in vaccine willingness by gender, race, education, and income suggests the potential for uneven vaccine uptake. Education by health providers directed toward assuaging concerns about vaccine safety and efficacy can help improve vaccine acceptance among those less willing. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT04276441.

Mental Health Services in a U.S. Prison During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Pandemics pose unique risks to people in correctional facilities. Among other vulnerabilities, incarcerated populations often have high rates of mental disorders and substance use disorders, which may increase risks for morbidity and mortality during a pandemic. California's San Quentin State Prison (SQSP) experienced multiple outbreaks during the 1918 influenza pandemic, and, a century later, the prison faces a new pandemic. This Open Forum describes the modification of mental health services in SQSP during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors explore the challenges of reducing risks of viral contagion while maintaining high-quality mental health care in a correctional setting.

Yield of colorectal cancer at colonoscopy according to faecal haemoglobin concentration in symptomatic patients referred from primary care.

AIM: Lower gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms are poor predictors of colorectal cancer (CRC). The aim of this study was to examine the diagnostic yield of colonoscopy by faecal haemoglobin (f-Hb) concentration in symptomatic patients assessed in primary care by faecal immunochemical testing (FIT). METHOD: In three Scottish NHS Boards, FIT kits (HM-JACKarc, Hitachi Chemical Diagnostics Systems Co., Ltd, Tokyo, Japan) were used by general practitioners to guide referrals for patients with lower GI symptoms (laboratory data studied for 12 months from December 2015 onwards in Tayside, 18 months from June 2018 onwards in Fife and 5 months from September 2018 onwards in Greater Glasgow and Clyde). Cases of CRC diagnosed at colonoscopy were ascertained from colonoscopy and pathology records. RESULTS: Four thousand eight hundred and forty one symptomatic patients who underwent colonoscopy after FIT submission were included. Of the 2166 patients (44.7%) with f-Hb <10 µg Hb/g faeces (µg/g), 14 (0.6%) were diagnosed with CRC, with a number needed to scope (NNS) of 155. Of the 2675 patients (55.3%) with f-Hb ≥10 µg/g, 252 were diagnosed with CRC (9.4%) with a NNS of 11. Of the 705 patients with f-Hb ≥400 µg/g, 158 (22.4%) were diagnosed with CRC with a NNS of 5. Over half of those diagnosed with CRC with f-Hb <10 µg/g had coexisting anaemia. CONCLUSION: Symptomatic patients with f-Hb ≥10 µg/g should undergo further investigation for CRC, while higher f-Hb concentrations could be used to triage for urgency during the COVID-19 recovery phase. Patients with f-Hb <10 µg/g and without anaemia are very unlikely to be diagnosed with CRC and the majority need no further investigation.